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Saturday, September 5, 2009

Wade Redden Will Rebound in '09-10

The Gomez trade to start the off-season has hopefully sent a big message to Redden, that of - Big contract players not meeting their expectations are expendable. Drury seems to have buddied with Tortorella, having spent the bulk of his summer in New York and in contact with the organization (like you'd expect), that puts a lot of the pressure on Redden. Drury's point production was pretty close to his career average, but Redden's (like Gomez's) took a nose dive.

Gaborik will set the elite-level dollar/point president this year (an 'average' Gaborik 80-point year would imply $93750/point), and Avery/Dubinsky/Callahan/Higgins (expected in the 40-50-point $50,000/point estimate) will set the tempo for the core of the team's forwards.
Prospal (expected 65-point $15,384/point) - an absolutely amazing signing and huge bargain, will be playing for his NHL career and light a huge fire under everyone's ass.

If it is acceptable for an 'elite' caliber defensemen to garner 1/5-2/3 of the point production of the team's 'elite' forwards, then we should expect a 40-53-point season out of Redden (or $122641-$162500/point). Last year's 26 point production produced a staggeringly-poor $250000/point ratio (nearly 1/2 of the expectations implied by his contract).

I'd draw from this the following conclusions:

1) Redden is absolutely playing '09-10 to keep his contract.
2) Redden's presence alone suggests that the Sather/Tortorella have some faith in him (as they have shown no resolve in cutting players they'd considered 'high value' at one point for more typical talent.)
3) A tabernacle of young talent is knocking on the door; Redden must succeed point-wise to keep his job.

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