A Lot Can Happen to the Knicks

June 25th, 2009 could spell a huge day for the New York Knicks at the '09 NBA Draft. But that depends on the number that former shooting guard Allan Houston representing the Knicks in the draft lottery.

The Knicks are positioned at 8th seed, which gives them a[nother] shot at the top.
The Knicks have a 10% chance to get a pick in the top 3 (and a 2.8% chance to get #1 overall, but a greater chance to drop to 9th-11th) Last year they were seeded 5th, and dropped to 6th in the lottery, selecting Spanish up-comer Danilo Gallinari.

Before thinking about who the Knicks could choose based on Houston's lottery-luck, we should think about where this team is going.

A quick glance at the Knicks Contracts suggests a few things:

1) Even with Marbury now off the books, the Knicks still have a hefty set of Contractual obligations next year without too much breathing room. ($25,000,000 to spend re-signing Lee or Robinson and some sort of center or rent-a-center to replace Chris Wilcox).

2) The Knicks already have $76,000,000 (!!!) freed up for 2010-2011, when the superstar free agent market will be booming. (Do it LeBron!! Save New York!)

3) The Knicks have $0 in Contracts set in 2011-2012, so they are already set up to totally change their image. (Any change from our <40% win seasons is good, let alone a totally new team in the Garden!).

So, rather then considering the 2009 NBA draft as a means to insert some rising young talent into our existing system, we should think of our draft choice as a potential piece of trade leverage to cater to the 2011+ Knicks, which could very well be a completely different team. Furthermore, all across the internet critics and analysts have called this year's draft disappointing, with the exception to the top 3.

Here they are in order of value to the Knicks (although Rubio and Griffin are a close call):

After watching UCONN's graceful start and disappointing finish to their '09 NCAA tournament campaign, falling just before the Championships, my eyes opened wider then ever watching Hasheem Thabeet perform valiantly where David Lee struggled for the Knicks - in the defensive paint. A shot-blocker that tall (7'3") that can position himself appropriately in up-tempo games could be the missing ingredient to the 2008-2009 Knicks' (and almost identical 2009-2010 Knicks') game. When the #4 scoring team in the NBA finishes 22nd overall, it is pretty obvious what was lacking from their game.






Coming in at 6'10" with a freightening confidence (yes.. freightening.. as in like a freight train) attacking the basket and protecting his own.. speedy, large, tenacious Blake Griffin has shown a steady increase in his game throughout college, going from Rookie of the Year in his freshman campaign to College Player of the Year in his seniority. Griffin finished the season in the Big 12 conference with 30 double-doubles (1 fewer then record-holding David Robinson), setting a new Big 12 Conference all-time season record of 504 rebounds, and was the 08-09 NCAA MVP. Oh he also won the McDonald's all-American Slam Dunk contest in '07. The projected 1st overall pick can do it all, and would be an easy selection for whoever draws numero uno. The only problem with him is that he has sustained both a sprained MCL (sophomore year) and concussion (senior year) in his college tenure - so the talk of the draft is not entirely invincible.


That brings us to the #2 projected overall pick - top-rated Euro talent Ricky Rubio (Griffin being #1 and Thabeet being #3, on Chad's Big Board) Right off the bat, one can easily imagine the one-two itallian punch in Danilo Gallinari paired with Rubio, under the tutelage of D'antoni (who played in Italy for some years with Gallinari Sr). Rubio was sequestered from public commentary until his 18th birthday (October '08), so very little is known about him.

Rubio held his first press conference in early June 2008. During the event, he criticized what he and many other observers saw as the NBA's emphasis on individual play and blamed poor team play for the recent struggles of the US national team, saying in his native Catalan, "Basketball isn't one-on-one. It's five-on-five, plus the bench."
He then switched to English, commenting on subjects such as his competitive nature—"If I'm losing, I'm going to do everything possible to win. I do the same thing on the court"—and how he practiced moves that he saw in videos of Maravich—"If I can do some magic, I do it." (wikipedia)

A dazzling point-guard with heart and creativity. Sounds a lot like a certain kryptonated player who will be playing for a contract next year.

There are some other solid players in the draft class, but if we don't use our #1 pick on one of these three top-rated guys, I would suggest trading down for a lottery pick in 2010 (while picking up a young set of legs deeper in this draft to get through '09-10).

With the Knicks Contracts in '09-10 and '10-11 in mind, speculating Donnie Walsh's drafting strategy is very difficult as there are many possibilities for New York. After the Knicks fans saw Stephon Marbury's atrocious $18,000,000+ contract dissolve, Jerome James, Malik Rose, Anthony Roberson, Freddy Jones, Jamal Crawford, and Zach Randolph all shipped off to [eventually] make room for Al Harrington, Chris Wilcox, and Larry Hughes, they all got a sense that Donnie Walsh is here to correct the mistakes of the past, or "re-build with the future in mind."

Regardless of who #1 and #2 are prospected to be, #3 Hasheem Thabeet has his size right now and can only get better. If Allan Houston gets a high enough draw on May 20th, go for Thabeet. If #1 and #2 are an option when the Knicks make their pick, still go for Thabeet. If these top 3 are taken by the time the Knicks pick (who are guaranteed 1,2,3,8,9,10, or 11, and a 90% chance to get 8-11), then I would suggest to trade down (while picking up a good roster-filler) for future considerations.

Then again, with Donnie behind the helm, you never know how he will his magic in trading up for a top-3 player while also unloading more bogus contracts and really giving the '09-10 season a much-needed roster boost and legitimate chance to make the playoffs.

His track record has suggested that Donnie Walsh will go for the '10-11 roster, and should either draft to compliment that team, or make a trade that would better compliment that team. In Thabeet, we would be getting a big defensive presence that would work brilliantly for this team. If the Knicks have the ability to becoming a winning team next year, they should go for it. Regardless of the '09-10 outcome, they would still have plenty of breathing room to change their roster, and you know they will; so I [still] say Go for Hasheem!