NHL '09 Summer Contract Options (Top Relative Value Choices)

Now that the Stanley Cup Playoffs are underway into the Conference Finals, the closer the start of the next season starts for the Rangers (and the more thought goes into the heads of Rangers fans looking to improve their team).



The Rangers are in a delicate situation with very little room for mistake. With Markus Naslund's $4,000,000 off the books for '09-10, the Rangers should immediately consider that money the Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan Re-up money. We also know that Gomez's contract heavily outweighs his point production, as does Wade Redden (which you can read about in Center on Value and Spezza Over Redden respectively).

If Nikolai Zherdev could play under John Tortorella more like he did under Tom Renney (as we discussed in What Happened to Zherdev?), then his roster spot should be a no-brainer renewal too.

Sean Avery's value has proven to be pretty much invaluable (Has it Fully Sunk In Yet?), as well as other keynotes (Blair Betts, Henrik Lundqvist, Marc Staal, and Dan Girardi).

With the these foundation players set, we can focus on pretty much the most obvious lacking cog to the Rangers machine: offense.

As we know, a lot of the Rangers money is locked up. Let us consider the concept of 'relative value.' Relative value could be defined as the dollar value a player's contract is worth per the amount of points this player has scored. Clearly a distinction should be made between defencemen-offense and offensemen-offense, as well as Time on Ice. However, looking at the Rangers' current roster ranked by their relative value of dollar/point production can really help us pinpoint the players that are the least worth it for offensive success.

Excluding Chris Drury (no-trade clause), Paul Mara and Derek Morris (UFA's), and Colton Orr (not paid to score), that leaves the bottom of our 'relative dollar/point value' 5 players to:

1. (D)Wade Redden _________ $250,000/point
2. (D)Michal Roszival _______ $166,667/point
3. (C)Scott Gomez __________ $126,845/point
4. (L)Lauri Korpikoski _______ $72,714/point *RFA
5. (R)Fredrik Sjostrom _______ $64,616/point *RFA

Clearly there is a huge gap between the lowest of the 3 in Redden, Roszival, and Gomez and 4 and 5 in Korpikoski and Sjostrom. So ideally to improve the dollar/point value of this team, we would need to remove these 3 players. We have developed quite a nice-reading group of defencemen in our farm system (Sanguinetti having just finished his first entire season in the AHL, Del Zotto turning heads since '08-09 training camp, Gilroy the Hobey Baker winner, and the likes of Dan Fahey and Corey Potter knocking on the NHL's door as well). If we could ship out just one of these poor-value defense, Redden or Roszival, we would not only improve our relative point value (by eliminating a dollar/point sinkhole), but we'd also be giving one of our eager youngsters a chance with the big-timers.

As far as Scott Gomez, eliminating his negative value and replacing him with a better relative dollar/point valued center would be the best option for the Rangers, seeing as how we have identified their poor play to the result of underachieving top-line dollar-voids. Although the chances that these particular players joining the Rangers is slim-to-none, here are the top 5 of this list.

1. Nicklas Backstrom____ $9,659/point
2. Henrik Sedin _______ $36,585/point
3. Marc Savard _______ $45,454/point
4. Ryan Getzlaf _______ $58,516/point
5. Jeff Carter _________ $59,523/point

Although all would be tremendous dollar/point upgrades from Scott Gomez, none of these top 5 would seem to leave their teams after having experienced excellent careers with their clubs in recent seasons.


Realistically, the Rangers should be looking at the following three centers, all falling in the top 30 point-scorers while also all having better relative dollar/point value then Gomez:

1. Mike Ribeiro_______ $64,102/point
2. Joe Thornton_______ $83,720/point
3. Jason Spezza_______ $95,890/point

Dallas, San Jose, and Ottawa (respectively) each had disappointing finishes to their seasons and will most likely be changing up their squads.

Please direct your attention to this google spreadsheet. I made this to analyze relative dollar/point value of the Rangers roster and compare it to the dollar/point value of the NHL's top 30 scorers.

Here is the direct link:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=rQ3_-MlfU6NyF7MgGrnahKQ

Skaters highlighted in yellow are players that are absolutely not expected to be moved from their NHL team, or expected to not be moved from the Rangers roster. Players in the top 30 that are highlighted have either seen post-season success in '09 beyond the first round, or have seen a certain degree of recent loyalty to their team.)

I believe that both Nik Antropov and Nikolai Zherdev, if John Tortorella can nurture their natural talents, could be excellent offensive power-houses. They both had relatively-excellent dollar/point value ($34,745/point and $43,103/point respectively).

This post is intended to identify the biggest voids in the Rangers roster in terms of investments of offensive production. Readers are wholeheartedly recommended to visit the google spreadsheet sited in this discussion for a better perspective of the dollar/point value of the Rangers and the league's top scorers.

Coming up soon will be my own personal take on random players across the league that I have taken my own liking to, including discussion on why they would be good additions to the team!

A Lot Can Happen to the Knicks

June 25th, 2009 could spell a huge day for the New York Knicks at the '09 NBA Draft. But that depends on the number that former shooting guard Allan Houston representing the Knicks in the draft lottery.

The Knicks are positioned at 8th seed, which gives them a[nother] shot at the top.
The Knicks have a 10% chance to get a pick in the top 3 (and a 2.8% chance to get #1 overall, but a greater chance to drop to 9th-11th) Last year they were seeded 5th, and dropped to 6th in the lottery, selecting Spanish up-comer Danilo Gallinari.

Before thinking about who the Knicks could choose based on Houston's lottery-luck, we should think about where this team is going.

A quick glance at the Knicks Contracts suggests a few things:

1) Even with Marbury now off the books, the Knicks still have a hefty set of Contractual obligations next year without too much breathing room. ($25,000,000 to spend re-signing Lee or Robinson and some sort of center or rent-a-center to replace Chris Wilcox).

2) The Knicks already have $76,000,000 (!!!) freed up for 2010-2011, when the superstar free agent market will be booming. (Do it LeBron!! Save New York!)

3) The Knicks have $0 in Contracts set in 2011-2012, so they are already set up to totally change their image. (Any change from our <40% win seasons is good, let alone a totally new team in the Garden!).

So, rather then considering the 2009 NBA draft as a means to insert some rising young talent into our existing system, we should think of our draft choice as a potential piece of trade leverage to cater to the 2011+ Knicks, which could very well be a completely different team. Furthermore, all across the internet critics and analysts have called this year's draft disappointing, with the exception to the top 3.

Here they are in order of value to the Knicks (although Rubio and Griffin are a close call):

After watching UCONN's graceful start and disappointing finish to their '09 NCAA tournament campaign, falling just before the Championships, my eyes opened wider then ever watching Hasheem Thabeet perform valiantly where David Lee struggled for the Knicks - in the defensive paint. A shot-blocker that tall (7'3") that can position himself appropriately in up-tempo games could be the missing ingredient to the 2008-2009 Knicks' (and almost identical 2009-2010 Knicks') game. When the #4 scoring team in the NBA finishes 22nd overall, it is pretty obvious what was lacking from their game.






Coming in at 6'10" with a freightening confidence (yes.. freightening.. as in like a freight train) attacking the basket and protecting his own.. speedy, large, tenacious Blake Griffin has shown a steady increase in his game throughout college, going from Rookie of the Year in his freshman campaign to College Player of the Year in his seniority. Griffin finished the season in the Big 12 conference with 30 double-doubles (1 fewer then record-holding David Robinson), setting a new Big 12 Conference all-time season record of 504 rebounds, and was the 08-09 NCAA MVP. Oh he also won the McDonald's all-American Slam Dunk contest in '07. The projected 1st overall pick can do it all, and would be an easy selection for whoever draws numero uno. The only problem with him is that he has sustained both a sprained MCL (sophomore year) and concussion (senior year) in his college tenure - so the talk of the draft is not entirely invincible.


That brings us to the #2 projected overall pick - top-rated Euro talent Ricky Rubio (Griffin being #1 and Thabeet being #3, on Chad's Big Board) Right off the bat, one can easily imagine the one-two itallian punch in Danilo Gallinari paired with Rubio, under the tutelage of D'antoni (who played in Italy for some years with Gallinari Sr). Rubio was sequestered from public commentary until his 18th birthday (October '08), so very little is known about him.

Rubio held his first press conference in early June 2008. During the event, he criticized what he and many other observers saw as the NBA's emphasis on individual play and blamed poor team play for the recent struggles of the US national team, saying in his native Catalan, "Basketball isn't one-on-one. It's five-on-five, plus the bench."
He then switched to English, commenting on subjects such as his competitive nature—"If I'm losing, I'm going to do everything possible to win. I do the same thing on the court"—and how he practiced moves that he saw in videos of Maravich—"If I can do some magic, I do it." (wikipedia)

A dazzling point-guard with heart and creativity. Sounds a lot like a certain kryptonated player who will be playing for a contract next year.

There are some other solid players in the draft class, but if we don't use our #1 pick on one of these three top-rated guys, I would suggest trading down for a lottery pick in 2010 (while picking up a young set of legs deeper in this draft to get through '09-10).

With the Knicks Contracts in '09-10 and '10-11 in mind, speculating Donnie Walsh's drafting strategy is very difficult as there are many possibilities for New York. After the Knicks fans saw Stephon Marbury's atrocious $18,000,000+ contract dissolve, Jerome James, Malik Rose, Anthony Roberson, Freddy Jones, Jamal Crawford, and Zach Randolph all shipped off to [eventually] make room for Al Harrington, Chris Wilcox, and Larry Hughes, they all got a sense that Donnie Walsh is here to correct the mistakes of the past, or "re-build with the future in mind."

Regardless of who #1 and #2 are prospected to be, #3 Hasheem Thabeet has his size right now and can only get better. If Allan Houston gets a high enough draw on May 20th, go for Thabeet. If #1 and #2 are an option when the Knicks make their pick, still go for Thabeet. If these top 3 are taken by the time the Knicks pick (who are guaranteed 1,2,3,8,9,10, or 11, and a 90% chance to get 8-11), then I would suggest to trade down (while picking up a good roster-filler) for future considerations.

Then again, with Donnie behind the helm, you never know how he will his magic in trading up for a top-3 player while also unloading more bogus contracts and really giving the '09-10 season a much-needed roster boost and legitimate chance to make the playoffs.

His track record has suggested that Donnie Walsh will go for the '10-11 roster, and should either draft to compliment that team, or make a trade that would better compliment that team. In Thabeet, we would be getting a big defensive presence that would work brilliantly for this team. If the Knicks have the ability to becoming a winning team next year, they should go for it. Regardless of the '09-10 outcome, they would still have plenty of breathing room to change their roster, and you know they will; so I [still] say Go for Hasheem!

Knicks Contracts

(click to enlarge)
(HoopsHype)

Rangers Contracts

(click to enlarge)
(Outside the Garden)

Hopefully Gone in 2010..

...I'm not talking about Chris Drury's $7,050,000 superstar-caliber Contract (set through 2011-2012 season, with no trade clause). *Small footnote, I do like Chris Drury and what he brings to the table - but I do not like paying a [now] injury-prone "good player" like "league-leader." So far Captain Clutch has been Captain Hurt in his first and second playoff runs with the Rangers (broken ribs and hand in '08 and '09 respectively).

...I'm not talking about newlywed Wade Redden either, and his $6,500,000 Norris-caliber Contract (set through 2013-2014), or his career-low in every statistic.

...I'm definitely not talking about John Tortorella, who (with all due respect to Tom Renney), mustered a gutsy comeback for the Blueshirts when they had appeared to be in total free-fall - only to spark a massive playoff implosion with a "it's a decision you have to make for the team" benching of Avery for losing his cool and then, well... losing his cool.

I am talking about the god-awful graphic advertisements superimposed onto the back-rink glass and the sudden tendency for the camera to jolt outside the play to fully capture the imagery.

Since the first game we witnessed this 'campaign' (against Montreal April 6th, where the first Subway logo was seen during the third period), I have burned bridges with any company stupid enough to soil their name by graffitiing it onto our precious glass.

The Loser's Circle:
Subway
New York Life
IO Optimum Cable

See, I actually enjoyed Subway before this. (The other two are actually competitors of my brands: Blue Horizon and Comcast, respectively). At least once a week I would stroll into my local franchise, humming the tune of 'five.... five dollar.... five dollar f--' well you get the picture. Since then I have jumped ship to Quiznos, Blimpies, and local favorite Jersey Mike's (at the suggestion of a legendary hockey rodent). I must say, I like Blimpies the most - there's just so much more meat!

I also understand that these corporations are not evil in that they are invading the sacred Garden glass, but rather customer's of James Dolan and the result of one or two of America's richest men shaking hands and signing a piece of paper. We can not blame the customers of MSG's advertising campaign - but we can punish Dolan for tainting our rink by proving his ad campaign a failure. So far the Rangers have already cost Subway a projected $30 of five dollar foot longs from me alone, redirected to their competition.

Coming soon: In-depth discussions on the Rangers and Knicks payrolls, salaries, movable players, possible acquisitions, and buzzworthy players!

What Happened to Zherdev?

Nikolai Zherdev has just cheerfully flown back to Russia to compete with his countrymen in the World Championships of Hockey. Here is a recent interview with Nikolai Zherdev:

Q: Was it difficult to accept the invitation from the national team after the disappointing defeat by Washington in the first round of the playoffs?

NZ: Not difficult at all. As you know, when I met with the coaches in New York, we discussed it straight away: that if we get knocked out after the first round, I’d come. We lost - it’s OK. We’ll win next year.

Q: How would you evaluate your game in the current season?

NZ: I think that I played OK. We got into the playoffs, that was a first for me. I never played for the Stanley Cup. I wanted to try it very much. And we lost in a struggle.

Q: Would you say that this is the most disappointing defeat in your career? The Rangers led in the series 3:1.

NZ: No, there have been more disappointing. In the final of the junior championship, I remember, we lost 14 seconds before the end of the game. But here was a struggle — the playoffs are unpredictable. The guys said that it’s possible to lead 3:0 and lose 4:3, it’s possible to be losing 3:1 and win. And so it turned out for us with Washington.

Q: Why couldn’t you score in the playoffs?

NZ: I couldn’t get my game going. I tried, but it didn’t work. I hope that the next time will be better.

Nikolai Zherdev carried the Rangers through their best, most winning-est moments during the regular season. He was their most consistent scorer that helped bolster the record that would turn out to be a life-preserver in the standings, before showing signs of weakness with uncharacteristic scoring droughts followed by an abysmal playoff series.

"Comeon 7th and 32nd.. we expect numbers from you!"

Here is a quick analysis of Zherdev's point production under Renney vs Tortorella, and scoring streak trend report:


Here are some conclusions one might draw:

Zherdev averaged 0.75 points per game (or good for 3 points every 4 games) under Renney.
Zherdev averaged 0.591 points per game (or good for 1 point every 2 games, sometimes more) under Tortorella.
Zherdev had 0.00 points per game in the playoffs under Tortorella.

Zherdev had 5 three-game point scoring streaks, and 2 four-game streaks.
Conversely, he had 2 three-game droughts, 1 four-game drought, 1 5-game drought, and 1 7-game drought (playoffs).
In the season's final 6 games and 7-game playoff series, in fact, Zherdev only mustered 1 assist and going -5 in the span.

So what happened to the Ukrainian star? What happened to the creative, resourceful scorer who excelled (and even told about how he is energized) when playing against his superstar countrymen? When did the semi-consistent 0.75 PPG average sour into the turn-over machine we saw looking so lost and so devoid of any scoring ability?

When Tom Renney was fired, it spelled out the demise of Zherdev's game (statistically, in 08-09 at least).

In the 29 total games played under Tortorella, Zherdev accumulated a total of 13 points, and suffered through 19 scoreless games (including streaks of 5 and 7 in the final month of the Rangers '08-09 campaign and even two benchings, meaning the majority of the time he was playing - he was not scoring.

Was it the change in play style and personnel? Was it change in general? We really do not know all too much about Nikolai Zherdev, but we can piece together bits of his past to suggest reason behind his collapse.

During the '06-07 Nikolai Zherdev grew frustrated, having problems with scoring consistency [that have resurfaced in Gotham], resulting in benchings and disputes with the staff and management. Although coach-at-the-time Ken Hitchcock had said that they 'cleaned the slate' Zherdev's time in Columbus was running down.

In the '07-08 season Zherdev again clashed with the Bluejackets' administration, going into a contract dispute that would find the Ukrainian threatening to abandon the NHL and play in Russia, paving the way for the Zherdev (and Fritsche) trade for Tyutin (and Backman) with the Rangers.

On October 14th, 2008, Rangers 2007 first round draft pick Alexei Cherepanov, who carried high-hopes for the future of the organization, collapsed next to Avangard Omsk team-mate Jaromir Jagr, and died at only 19. Nikolai Zherdev, who had played with and admired Cherepanov, and was understandably excited to be united with the Russian Rocket in following years, was devastated.


In the following two-weeks after Cherepanov's death, Nikolai Zherdev contributed 1 assist in 5 games. He was finally whisked out of his deep, emotional slump by the camaraderie of his young team mates.

The point is that we have seen evidence in the past that could suggest the 24-year old Russian playing against his countrymen more then with them has worn his emotions on his sleeve. That sleeve being the stitched RBK Rangers jersey, and that emotion being in the form of lackluster, heartless hockey.

When Zherdev is playing confident hockey and having fun - he is a superstar.
When Zherdev is playing depressed hockey - he is nothing.

Perhaps Tom Renney (or maybe somehow Dmitri Kalinin) soothed the Russian and got Zherdev playing Zherdev's game. Nonetheless, the job is in John Tortorella's hands to get (and KEEP) Zherdev playing like we know Zherdev can play.




Markus Naslund retired yesterday! Hats off to the Swede for bowing out of a $3,000,000 guaranteed playing contract in '09-10 (or potential $2,000,000 buyout, or $4,000,000 against the Rangers cap). Assuming Glen Sather has his priorities where they should be, we may see money to go directly to Ryan Callahan and Brandon Dubinsky the young nucleus of the organization.

Knicks Should Go for Thabeet

The New York Knicks, following their 'successful' 32-50 season debut of Mike D'antoni and Donnie Walsh overhauling the team, find themselves better then their 23-59 record in 07-08, which just barely pushes the Knicks' heartbeat to where it was in 06-07's 33-49 Eddy Curry-fronted record. The key to Curry's return, of course, being his off-season basketball fitness training.

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Although it may not be saying much, for a team that had an average of 7.5 players to work with in an active, professional rotation - they did a heck of a job to compete with some emerging powerhouse teams this season.



The entrance of Chris Duhon hinted at a winnable formula with the Knicks, and an intelligent coaching staff and management have identified the missing ingredients, or so they say. Al Harrington blew all the critics away with a fire under his ass to rejuvenate his career, Nate Robinson directed attention to himself, which may be really beneficial to less camera-friendly team-mates, and the door continued to revolve for those that couldn't hack it for Donnie.

They lacked a few elements to their game, suggested by their atrocious .390 record. The numbers back up the obvious, as well. The Knicks were a high-scoring team, 4th in 08-09 at a 105.2 p/pg average. They were also scored on the 28th out of 30th, at a staggering 107.81 p/pg average. Only a -2.61 margin difference.

Top-rated college center, Hasheem Thabeet, has been easily speculated to be selected in the top 5 of the 2009 NBA entry draft. The Knicks, although not particularly in a position of probable draft power, may still land that high, or always have the ability to trade up.

With Donnie Walsh having his finger on the button, don't be surprised if you continue to see a slew of moves in his campaign.

Why would Thabeet be so valuable to the Knicks? Because of the defensive presence that the Knicks so desperately needed in 08-09. Averaging 4.2 blocks per game while leading UCONN to the Final Four last year, while also contributing 13.6 p/pg, Thabeet could be the young, energetic defensive presence that could turn that -2.61 differential into a playoff team.

With a reliable defensive center, players like David Lee could be utilized in the offensive roles they were born to play. Lee, the NBA's leader in double-doubles (65) has shown his biggest strengths in his low-post play off the dribble, particularly from Duhon.

Speaking of David Lee, he will need to be re-signed. I am in total support of moving players around to establish a winning record - but I believe Lee is a pivot of this organization. He would not be as valuable to another team as the support he gives the Knicks. If he is used primarily as a scoring threat, furthermore, with defensive support to another big man (Thabeet! Thabeet!), we would see his ambi-dexterity do what it is meant to - score big points. I cannot stress how valuable his deep-game prowess is for a team that led the league in 3-point attempts.

Do whatever it takes to get Thabeet [and keep Duhon and Lee]!

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Has it Fully Sunk in Yet?

"It" of course being the 3-1 series stranglehold the Rangers had over the Capitals before losing 3 in a row.

"It" also being the New Jersey Devils final-minute Game 7 upset to the Carolina Hurricanes, going from a commanding 3-2 lead to a shocking 4-3 defeat in the final 1:20.

Although the Devils finale may have been a bigger 'upset' the Rangers finale was more 'upsetting.'

If "it" has not fully sunk in, "it" will tonight at 7:30 PM for Metro-NY faithful when the Carolina Hurricanes, who the Devils shoulda taken down face, the Boston Bruins, a series that the Rangers shoulda played.


Sean Avery on his game and Tortorella:

"If the organization, my teammates and the coach are behind me, I have to play my game. For the first time I feel I have a coach who will make me a better player. I can't think of a coach I'd rather play for."

No kidding, Sean. We saw the dominant force you brought to Game 7. And we also know the Rangers are the team that turns Sean Bruce Banner Avery into the Incredible Hulk. (Avery has enjoyed career statistical years in New York, so far.)



Let's look at the numbers again, we have some time..

Rangers Record with Avery in the lineup: 61-26-17
139 out of 208 points in the standings (or average of 1.336 points earned per game(p/pg).

Now lets look at the Rangers record overall for the past 4 years:

Rangers 05-06: 44-26-12 (100 out of 164, 1.220 p/pg)
Rangers 06-07: 42-30-10 (94 out of 164, 1.146 p/pg)
Rangers 07-08: 42-27-13 (97 out of 164, 1.183 p/pg)
Rangers 08-09: 43-30-9 (95 out of 164, 1.159 p/pg)

This means that over the past four years, the Rangers have collectively taken on average 1.177 standing points out of each game (or about 96.514 points in the standings after an 82 game season).

Over Sean Avery's [hopefully] young 104-game career in New York, the Rangers have earned an average of 1.336 standing points out of each game (or worthy of a 109.552 point-season average).

I personally love the numbers game. With a large 'array' (like a 3-year campaign), we are able to really focus on what each cog brings to the Rangers machine. The Rangers have earned 13.5% more points in the standings from the line-up presence of Avery alone.

Sean might not be a super-star goal-scorer, but he is absolutely a winner, and the other backbone of this team (behind the King).

I mentioned in Center on Value that the blueprint to a successful team must be started from the foundation up. Foundation players being able to battle for pucks, protect the team, and give up less then the opposition can produce. After the foundation is set and the group is sturdy and confident with one another, then the luxuries can be added to rack up the goal count. These luxuries must compliment and be complimented by the foundation - otherwise you will just see single players attempting to win games (not possible, as we've seen, with this group of players.) The third element, that I did not really touch on, are the intangible players that don't really fit into either category.

These players include the pests and personalities of an organization. They are the players that can draw a double-team [leaving a man wide-open] merely by the number on their back. These are the players that will convince opposing players to lose their cool and take mindless penalties, get into their heads, and throw their games off.

These players will open up ice just by who they are. Sean Avery is at the top of the league in this 'statistic.'

Glen Sather managed to taint the Rangers image, didn't he, by pouncing on Avery's Contract immediately after Brodeur's nemesis was suspended, scolded, and waived by the Dallas Stars. The Stars are now responsible for a large portion of Avery's Contract, much like the (grrr) Washington Capitals were responsible for the bulk of Jagr's Contract during the majority of the Czech's superstar spotlight role on Broadway. Although it all worked out in the Rangers' favor (ie: costing the Rangers fewer dollars) to keep their statistically-biggest winner, Avery's Texas-antics covered up a group of MAJOR off-season mistakes by Sather in the summer of '08.

Let's hope the legendary NHL persona learned from his managerial mistakes last summer in the results he watched get boo'd on the Garden Ice all season. (Ie: keep Avery at all costs, and build scoring around our foundation players, damnit!!)

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